By Robert Reich
Will Republican candidates be penalized by the war’s failure?
Friends,
We’re coming to the end of Trump’s war in Iran, mainly because Trump is under huge pressure to lower gas prices and prevent additional inflation before the midterms. He was elected in 2024 mainly to reduce prices, yet prices are now 4.2 percent higher than they were at this time a year ago. Pay hasn’t kept up, meaning most Americans are poorer.
So the big question is how Americans are likely to judge this war when they vote in just 131 days (or earlier, if they can vote by mail). That’s the subject of today’s Office Hours.
Trump’s war with Iran has been a huge failure by every criterion — energy prices, American security, Iran’s bargaining leverage via the Strait of Hormuz, the war’s cost in lives and dollars, and the hardliners in Iran’s leadership who are now more likely to want to build nuclear weapons.
But what is its effect on American politics? I’ve made the rounds of political and media analysts, seeking their views on how Americans are likely to view Trump’s war and what impact those views are likely to have on the midterm vote. I’ve grouped their responses below:
1. Most Americans will view the war as a success, so it’s very unlikely to harm Republican candidates.
Although a majority of Americans disapprove of the war, according to polls, several analysts warn me to never underestimate either Trump’s ability to sell the American people on almost anything or the gullibility of Americans. His M.O. is to create such a fog of conflicting accounts and facts that his loud and repetitive lies sway most people. Nor do his political opponents and critics have a single spokesperson nearly as adamant or tenacious. This is particularly the case with something as complex as the outcome of hostilities in Iran. On Tuesday, for example, Trump declared, “Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!).” Iran said it had no plan to allow inspections.
2. Most Americans will be confused as to whether the war was worth it, and it won’t affect the midterm elections one way or the other.
Other analysts tell me that confusion will reign. They expect views about the war to follow along partisan lines, with most Republicans believing it a success and most Democrats thinking it a failure. The crucial group will be independent voters, but such voters are unlikely to have a clear view one way or the other. They’ll hear so many conflicting facts and views that they’ll remain largely confused. Hence, according to these analysts, voters’ attitudes toward the war won’t have much impact on the midterm elections. The war will fade into voters’ minds as a confusing jumble of inconsistent facts and views.
3. Most Americans will view the war as a failure and hold it against Republicans.
Several analysts I spoke with believe that most Americans will see the war in Iran as a failure. Voters will compare what America and the world were like before the war with what the war has wrought and conclude that they are no safer than before and in some important ways more endangered, and that the hundreds of billions spent on the war were wasted. Even if gas prices fall, prices are not likely to fall as low they were before the war — thereby providing voters a clear, visual measure (at every corner gas station) of their economic circumstances now as compared to before the war started.