Task Force Raider’s role in 2026 elections has military officers uneasy

And it’s all about Trump

By Paul Krugman — via Substack

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Inflation is down. Or at least that’s what Donald Trump says.

I wrote yesterday, following the release of the latest Consumer Price Index, that Trump had snatched inflation defeat from the jaws of victory. Now the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its other inflation measure, the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale prices, and it was even worse, running substantially hotter than forecasters expected:

My basic point — that Trump inherited a relatively benign inflation picture and threw that inheritance away with his tariffs and war — is even clearer from the PPI than the CPI. And the PPI is often a leading indicator of future consumer prices, so there’s no relief visible in the near future.

There’s no way to shift the blame this time

By Paul Krugman — via Substack

One of the great ironies of American politics is that Donald Trump won the 2024 election basically because a significant number of credulous voters believed his promises to bring prices down beginning on “day one.”

What actually happened was that America, along with the rest of the world, experienced a temporary surge in inflation in 2021-22, mainly because of the lingering effects of Covid disruptions. And voters still blamed Joe Biden for that surge.

My fears for the next two years

By Paul Krugman — via Substack

By the middle of March 1945 even Adolf Hitler knew that the war was lost. Soviet forces were within 45 miles of Berlin. American forces had crossed the Rhine and were well on their way to encircling the remaining German defenders. But Hitler didn’t believe that he had failed. He believed that he had been failed by the German people.

So on March 19 he issued the “Decree concerning demolitions in the Reich territory,” which has come to be known as the Nerobefehl or Nero decree. It ordered the destruction of Germany’s own infrastructure — supposedly to deny that infrastructure to the Allies, but the obvious purpose was to punish his own country.

Mega-billionaires are more dangerous to democracy than the merely rich

By Paul Krugman — via Substack

Just a quick note of congratulations to Bob Hall and Mike Woodford for their richly deserved Nobel. I’ll write more another day. Also, for everyone saying that this isn’t a real Nobel: Indeed, the economics prize is just an award handed out by some Swedes. This is in contrast to the real Nobels, which are … just awards handed out by some Swedes.

In other words, don’t be that guy.

Today a relatively short note about how some political news bears on a controversy that has been brewing among some economists. Basically, some analysts are saying that we talk too much about mega-billionaires, and not enough about the merely very rich. Thus a new book by Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick, “The Everywhere Millionaire” — their Substack is here — points out that there are about 5 million Americans whose wealth exceeds $5 million. Of these, 3 million are what they call Main Street Millionaires, wealthy small business owners. And as they say, “Collectively, Main Street Millionaires have more than thirteen times the wealth of the Forbes 400.”

And they’re right that focusing only on the extremely (obscenely) rich misses the role played by wealthy small business owners.

Yet dismissing mega-billionaires — hey, they only own 4 percent or so of America — is deeply misleading, for these ultra-rich are at the heart of the rising power of big money in U.S. politics.

First, an economic observation: While the ultra-rich still don’t own as much of America’s wealthy as some may imagine, they have played a dominant role in the rising concentration of wealth.

Using data from realtimeinequality.org, the share of the top 1 percent — roughly corresponding to Zidar and Zwick’s definition of the wealthy — in U.S. wealth rose from 23.2 percent of total wealth in 1979 to 38.3 percent today. So one might think that the great rise in concentrated wealth was a “1 percent” phenomenon. But if we look at the changes in wealth share within the 1 percent, we find that very little of it involved the bottom 90 percent of that group, and most of it came from the top 0.01 percent — the one percent of the one percent:

Of fuels and fools

By Paul Krugman — via Substack

At a conference in Naples, so no time for a full post. Just three notes.

First, the big news on U.S. foreign policy was that Trump announced that he was buying 300,000 tons of Russian diesel. He’s not allowed to do this: Sanctions preventing purchase of Russian oil are law, not a choice on Trump’s part. But under Trump laws are suggestions at most, so it might happen anyway. In any case, the main lesson here, as Phillips O’Brien explains, is that Trump isn’t even hiding the fact that he is supporting Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

But being a nerdy economist, my first printable reaction to the announcement was, 300,000 tons??? That’s a bit over 2 million barrels. America consumes approximately 4 million barrels of distillates — diesel (mostly) and heating oil — every day.

So Trump is betraying an embattled democracy, demonstrating our faithlessness to the whole world, seriously damaging whatever is left of America’s leadership in the world, for the sake of maybe 12 hours’ worth of diesel. Really?

Of course, Trump and those around him don’t care about the national interest. But I would strongly guess that they didn’t do the math, that 300,000 tons sounded like a lot to them and that they had no idea that it was trivial for an economy the size of America’s. I might add that this is general issue with Trump: he often touts trivial policies as major achievement, and it often seems obvious that he has no idea how big America and the world are.

Arithmetic, I guess, suffers from Trump derangement syndrome.

In other news, remember how Scott Bessent was a highly qualified and credible choice as Treasury Secretary? Neither do I. In the latest news, he has now hired Judy Shelton as an adviser. Some readers may remember that in 2019 Trump tried to put Shelton on the Federal Reserve Board. He failed in the face of bipartisan opposition: Even Republican senators considered Shelton too extreme and incompetent for the job.

And now she will be advising Bessent — who, as I wrote recently, is becoming the Baghdad Bob of bonds — on currency policy.

On a completely different subject, last week I briefly noted that I found official numbers showing essentially no Italian productivity growth since 2000 implausible. Sergio De Nardis of LUISS sent me a paper arguing that there really is a measurement problem. Using national accounts data, Italy appears to have lagged far behind Germany and France since 2005; using purchasing power parity it hasn’t lagged at all:

A different and alarming take on the economic risks

By Paul Krugman — via Substack

Luddites old and new

According to a new paper by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, “a representative 200 MW AI training campus” — that is, a center that processes huge amounts of data to power models like ChatGPT and Claude — “costs roughly $8.2 billion.” Building such a center will temporarily employ a significant number of construction workers and indirectly employ a number of people producing the hardware and software that account for most of a data center’s expense. Once such a data center is up and running, however, typical estimates suggest that it will employ only between 50 and 150 workers.

If this sounds like an extremely small number, that’s because it is. U.S. workers are, on average, equipped with a lot more capital than their counterparts in most of the world. Even so, total fixed assets per worker — a concept I’ll explain later in this primer — are “only” around $700,000. So deploying $8 billion in capital, the cost of a data center, in a non-AI sector will, on average, support more than 10,000 jobs, while investing that money in a data center will support only around 100 jobs. Or to put it another way, money spent building data centers will, on average, create only around one percent as many jobs as investing the same sum in other industries would have created.

There has been very widespread discussion of the possibility that AI will worsen America’s already severe problem of income and wealth inequality. In today’s primer I will offer what I believe is a somewhat novel take on that issue — although, as I’ll explain, I’m following in the footsteps of David Ricardo, one of the founders of economics as a discipline.

Travel day

By Paul Krugman — via Substack

At a conference in an undisclosed location. For some reason, however, I was looking at productivity numbers for Italy. According to the OECD, productivity rose only 2 percent — total — between 2000 and 2023. Italy has problems — at PPP, its productivity relative to the US fell from 0.91 to 0.79 — but zero growth in a nation that definitely makes considerable use of modern technology just isn’t plausible. More evidence of measurement issues.

In other news, interest rates!

And Pete Hegseth, who believes that testosterone wins modern wars, also believes that what America really needs to become great again are livestreamed public executions.

That’s all for today.

NYA Thanks Paul Krugman!

Friends,

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

America makes its choice two weeks from Tuesday.

It’s not really a choice between two parties. After all, a record 45 percent of American voters now call themselves “independent” and don’t align with either party. And most of us who still describe ourselves as Republicans or Democrats don’t have much love for whichever party we’re registered with.

Nor will it be a choice between the “left” and the “right,” as those terms have been used for the last half-century — representing preferences by the left for more and bigger social safety nets and by the right for lower taxes. These days, big business wants more government in the form of subsidies, bailouts, no-bid government contracts, and a giant military-technology state.

Friends,

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

AI data center construction is diverting capital and labor away from building everything else we need. AI is the biggest, most costly, and least popular economic bet America has ever made. Why are we making it? Who stands to gain? Who’s going to lose? What can we do?

Please watch and share:

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NYA Thanks Robert Reich!

Affordability is important but we must also demand common decency from our president

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

The Democrats’ focus on affordability seems to be a winning strategy (we’ll know for sure in a little over two weeks). But we mustn’t lose sight of the moral squalor at the core of the Trump regime.

It’s that moral squalor — the utter disregard for the opinions, norms, and ideals of the nation or, for that matter, of humanity — that uniquely marks Trump and the reprobates he has attracted to Washington. It has also poisoned much of the Republican Party, including the billionaires and tech bros who finance it.

To put this despicable era behind us, we’ll need to renounce and reverse this squalor.

What are loosely described as Trump’s “conflicts of interest,” for example, extend way beyond enriching himself from his presidency. He has violated the basic norms of presidential decency.

He just decided to host the Group of 20 annual summit of world leaders at his private golf club in Miami in December. When he sought to do this during his first term, it was viewed as a blatant violation of the emoluments clause of the Constitution. Now, after America’s moral sensibilities have been numbed by Trump’s appetite for foreign gifts — such as Qatar’s “donation” of a $400 million jumbo jet — it barely merits a mention.

He sells advance notice of his market-altering announcements for $100,000 a month, thereby profiting by tipping off people who trade on the information before it becomes publicly available. He files a trademark application for “Trump TV” to control the name of a streaming service that the White House uses for official presidential communications, thereby pocketing the benefits from taxpayer funds used to create and run the channel.

His family-backed crypto firm introduces a stablecoin just months before he signs legislation promoting it. His wife is paid tens of millions for a self-promotional film by Jeff Bezos’s Amazon, a federal contractor and major retailer subject to a myriad of regulations. His son has a Russian oligarch, close to Putin, pick up the tab for part of his wedding afterparty in the Bahamas.

He arranges for the Justice Department to grant him and his family immunity for any back taxes and penalties they might owe.

And so on. Trump has tossed away all constraints on making money off his presidency “because I got no credit in the first term” and “I found out that nobody cared.”

Credit? Someone who is entrusted with the highest office in the land must receive “credit” for doing what’s right, in order to continue doing what’s right? Nobody cares? A president can embrace corruption if the public doesn’t mind?

Just about the opposite of Trump’s

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

Trump and Vance claim they’re putting “America first.” They’re not. They’re putting themselves first and America last.

So what would a REAL “America first” agenda look like? Take a look:

Our real America First agenda doesn’t exclude or vilify people. It doesn’t surveil them, take away their healthcare, or give billionaires and corporations unrestricted power over their lives.

America First means taking care of and investing in everyone who resides within our borders. Helping people abroad, not bombing them. Ensuring working people have freedom and control over their own lives.

Don’t let Trump and Republicans claim they put America first. They don’t. This agenda does.

Please share.

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NYA Thanks Robert Reich!

Could happen sooner than you think

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

I keep hearing from political insiders that there’s a growing chance Trump will be removed from office soon after the midterms. See this:

It’s becoming apparent that Trump is becoming more demented by the day. He can’t be trusted to do the job — which is why Congress ratified the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, section 4 of which reads:

“Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the pwers and duties of the. office as Acting President.”

As you see, even if Trump’s cabinet lapdogs won’t declare he’s unable, Congress may set up a “body” to decide it.

As the above video makes clear, there’s ample reason to believe this is already in the works.

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NYA Thanks Robert Reich!

Democratic candidates are connecting the affordability crisis to corruption. If Dems get the chance to govern, they’ll need to attack both.

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

In these last weeks before the midterms, Democratic candidates have been gaining ground by talking about two things: the affordability crisis and political corruption.

If Democrats regain control of Congress and genuinely want to respond to affordability, they’ll need to do everything possible to root out the corruption.

The two are inseparable. In large part, prices are rising faster than paychecks because so much of the economy has become subject to political bribery, Trump Republican pay-to-play schemes, and kickbacks to Trump and his cronies.

Violating Justice Department rules, they raided her apartment today — just 22 days before she faces reelection. If they regain control of the House, Dems must investigate this abuse of power.

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

Sorry to intrude on your inbox again today, but I wanted to bring your attention to today’s raid by federal agents on the Washington-area home of Rep. Ilhan Omar — 22 days before she faces reelection to Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District.

The raid reportedly concerns Omar’s immigration history, including allegations of fraud that she has repeatedly denied.

Widening inequalities of place

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Good morning, friends,

This week’s Class 4 explores why geographic segregation by income, wealth, and race has been on the rise.

In case you missed them, here are the classes that have been released so far: Class 1, Class 2, Class 3.

For Class 4, just double-click on the video below, and you’re in the fourth week of class.

Some background:

Inequalities that depend on where you live are widening in particularly divisive ways.

To be rich in today’s America means never having to come into contact with anyone who isn’t. To be poor in today’s America means being trapped on islands of poverty from which escape has become more and more difficult.

The questions we’ll focus on today:

• Why is it becoming easier for the wealthier to segregate from the poorer within a nation?
• What forms does this segregation take in addition to geographic?
• What are the consequences?
• Is this much different from a nation as a whole cutting itself off from others around the world who are poorer?

Thanks for joining me!

Recommended Readings:

• Editorial Board, “The Cities We Need,” The New York Times
• Phillip Longman, “Why the Economic Fates of American Cities Diverged,” The Atlantic
• Jonathan Kozol, “Life on the Mississippi: East St. Louis, Illinois,” Savage Inequalities
• Jacqueline Rabe Thomas, “Separated by Design: How Some of America’s Richest Towns Fight Affordable Housing,” ProPublica

For a full list of readings and the student handout for today’s class, you can visit the course website here.

Subscribe now

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A huge thanks to the Wealth and Poverty team — to Michael Lahanas-Calderón, Kyle Parker, Dan Davis, and Emmett Tjen — as well as Coro Fellows Ammar Ansari and Meagan Turner for preparing these course materials to be shared with all of you. And to Heather Kinlaw Lofthouse for making all this happen on this page.

NYA Thanks Robert Reich!

That’s enough to seriously damage Republican candidates

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

Everywhere he goes on the campaign trail, Trump is telling Republican voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”

He’s not, of course, but his approval rating is so low that telling voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot is backfiring big-time.

Which is why so many Republican candidates are trying to distance themselves from him. They’re not mentioning his name. They’re not talking about his policies. They avoid the word “MAGA.” A dozen have removed his name, image, or endorsements from their campaign websites.

They don’t want to appear with him. When Mike Schrimpf, a spokesman for John Sununu’s Senate campaign, was asked why Trump isn’t campaigning with Sununu, Schrimpf limply explained,“John’s focus the entire campaign has been on New Hampshire, and [he] doesn’t plan to campaign with anyone from outside New Hampshire.” Maine’s Republican Sen. Susan Collins told The New York Times she has no plans to campaign with Trump.

Friends,

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

Please submit your caption in the Comments section, and, as before, please use the Comments section only for captions.

Winners will be announced next Sunday. For consideration, please post your caption by Monday at 9 pm PT, 12 midnight ET.

Friends,

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

I’m allowing myself to believe that sane people may be in charge of Congress starting next January 20. I know, I know: Polls have gotten our hopes up before only to have them dashed on the rocky shores of political reality.

But this time it does seem as if congressional Republicans will finally get their comeuppance for their blind loyalty to Trump.

The sense of relief in the land is palpable.

Trump’s and Hegseth’s barbaric decision to live-stream an execution

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

Cruel enough that the United States is going to put someone to death by firing squad, but only sadists would want it broadcast livestream.

Yet that’s what Pete (“High Testosterone”) Hegseth is planning. He confirmed it yesterday when speaking to the conservative broadcaster Real America’s Voice, saying said people should be able to watch “because people need to understand that there’s serious consequences for these types of things.”

Nidal Hasan committed a terrible crime. The former U.S. Army Major and psychiatrist opened fire with a handgun at a medical facility at Fort Hood, Texas on November 5, 2009 as soldiers waited for medical checks before deployment, killing 13 and wounded 32 others. Twelve of those killed and 30 of the wounded were soldiers. Hasan was sentenced to death by a military jury in 2013 after being convicted of 13 counts of premeditated murder and 32 counts of attempted premeditated murder.

The execution will be the first by firing squad carried out by the U.S. military since 1945, when army private Eddie Slovik was executed for desertion during the second world war. The last US military execution of any kind took place in 1961, when John Bennett was hanged.

But live-streaming it?

Friends,

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

As income and wealth concentrate at the top, everyone else is finding themselves struggling. More than 60 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, which means they’re only one medical emergency or lost job away from poverty.

So what does the oligarchy — the billionaires, Wall Street mavens, and tech bros — do? They keep us separated and afraid of one another. They want us to blame the “other” for our problems.

Their greatest fear is we’ll discover our commonality and join together, and get to work busting up monopolies, raising taxes on the super-wealthy, and strengthening labor unions, cooperatives, and employee-owned businesses.

I explore this, this coming week in my Wealth and Poverty course. Please join me. Week 4 is available here on this substack, Monday.

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NYA Thanks Robert Reich!

How the system now works

By Robert Reich — via Substack

Friends,

Here’s today’s trivia question (which may turn out to be not at trivial at all when all the facts emerge): Who solicited money from a presidential donor in return for access to the head of the IRS over the donor’s taxes, was a Fox News host, was engaged to the son of the U.S. president, was the former wife of someone who wants to be the next U.S. president, who raised money for and spoke at a rally that led to an attack on the U.S. Capitol, and now is a U.S. ambassador?

If you guessed Kimberly Guilfoyle, you’d be correct on all counts.

Rarely has a person been so enmeshed in the workings (or one might say, dysfunctions) of our current political-economic-media-influence system as Guilfoyle.

From 2001 to 2005, Guilfoyle was married to Gavin Newsom, now governor of California. In 2018, she began dating Donald Trump Jr., became engaged to him in 2020, and emerged as one of his father’s most outspoken defenders and a MAGA icon.